Researchers extensively studied external loads since they are widely recognized as significant contributors to water pipe failures. Physical phenomena that affect pipe bursts, such as pipe-environment interactions, are very complex and only partially understood. This paper analyses the possible link between pipe bursts and climate-related factors. Many water utilities observed consistent occurrence of peaks in pipe bursts in some periods of the year, during winter or summer. The paper investigates the relationships between climate data (i.e., temperature and precipitation-related covariates) and pipe bursts recorded during a 24-year period in Scarborough (Ontario, Canada). The Evolutionary Polynomial Regression modelling paradigm is used here. This approach is broader than statistical modelling, implementing a multi-modelling approach, where a multi-objective genetic algorithm is used to get optimal models in terms of parsimony of mathematical expressions vs. fitting to data. The analyses yielded interesting results, in particular for cold seasons, where the discerned models show good accuracy and the most influential explanatory variables are clearly identified. The models discerned for warm seasons show lower accuracy, possibly implying that the overall phenomena that underlay the generation of pipe bursts during warm seasons cannot be thoroughly explained by the available climate-related covariates.

Study on relationships between climate-related covariates and pipe bursts using evolutionary-based modelling / Laucelli, Daniele Biagio; Rajani, B; Kleiner, Y; Giustolisi, Orazio. - In: JOURNAL OF HYDROINFORMATICS. - ISSN 1464-7141. - 16:4(2014), pp. 743-757. [10.2166/hydro.2013.082]

Study on relationships between climate-related covariates and pipe bursts using evolutionary-based modelling

LAUCELLI, Daniele Biagio;GIUSTOLISI, Orazio
2014-01-01

Abstract

Researchers extensively studied external loads since they are widely recognized as significant contributors to water pipe failures. Physical phenomena that affect pipe bursts, such as pipe-environment interactions, are very complex and only partially understood. This paper analyses the possible link between pipe bursts and climate-related factors. Many water utilities observed consistent occurrence of peaks in pipe bursts in some periods of the year, during winter or summer. The paper investigates the relationships between climate data (i.e., temperature and precipitation-related covariates) and pipe bursts recorded during a 24-year period in Scarborough (Ontario, Canada). The Evolutionary Polynomial Regression modelling paradigm is used here. This approach is broader than statistical modelling, implementing a multi-modelling approach, where a multi-objective genetic algorithm is used to get optimal models in terms of parsimony of mathematical expressions vs. fitting to data. The analyses yielded interesting results, in particular for cold seasons, where the discerned models show good accuracy and the most influential explanatory variables are clearly identified. The models discerned for warm seasons show lower accuracy, possibly implying that the overall phenomena that underlay the generation of pipe bursts during warm seasons cannot be thoroughly explained by the available climate-related covariates.
2014
Study on relationships between climate-related covariates and pipe bursts using evolutionary-based modelling / Laucelli, Daniele Biagio; Rajani, B; Kleiner, Y; Giustolisi, Orazio. - In: JOURNAL OF HYDROINFORMATICS. - ISSN 1464-7141. - 16:4(2014), pp. 743-757. [10.2166/hydro.2013.082]
Study on relationships between climate-related covariates and pipe bursts using evolutionary-based modelling / Laucelli, Daniele Biagio; Rajani, B; Kleiner, Y; Giustolisi, Orazio. - In: JOURNAL OF HYDROINFORMATICS. - ISSN 1464-7141. - 16:4(2014), pp. 743-757. [10.2166/hydro.2013.082]
File in questo prodotto:
Non ci sono file associati a questo prodotto.

I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.

Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11589/3843
Citazioni
  • Scopus 41
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.isi??? 40
social impact