Evidence (Dempster - Shafer) Theory-Based evaluation of different Transport Modes under Uncertainty.: Theoretical basis and first findings

The aim of this paper is to evaluate the best mode of transport in relation to the transport quality perceived by users. To this aim, we have found a framework to aggregate data and information coming from multiple information sources, often characterized by a high level of uncertainty. The proposed method is a hybrid approach based on two different theories: the Analytical Hierarchy Process (Saaty, 1980) and the Evidence- or Dempster-Shafer-Theory(Dempster 1967; 1968; Shafer, 1976). First, we have carried out a survey to investigate the users' point of view about the quality of transport, expressed through fifteen criteria, representative of the transport quality. Within the survey, the users were asked to rank the chosen criteria. Due to the complexity of the transport problem, we have used the Analytical Hierarchy Process to decompose the problem in different levels. Because of the decomposition, we have obtained priority vectors, which we have taken as basic probability assignments for application of the Dempster-Shafer Theory (DST). The DST is used to fuse different users' opinions and to take into account Uncertainty embedded in human judgment. The results show which alternatives users consider the best in relation to analyzed criteria.