Deep Movements in Clayey Slopes Relating to Climate: Modeling for Early Warning System Design

The current landslide activity in the southern Italian Apennines has been found often prompted by the slope-vegetation-atmosphere interaction, as recognized through both phenomenological and numerical diagnoses in literature. In the very top soil layers this interaction causes transient seepage, resulting in significant variations of pore water pressures with time at both very shallow depths, and at larger depths, below the water table. As consequence, the slope-vegetation-atmosphere interaction often represents the triggering factor of the activity of shallow failure mechanisms, as well as the acceleration of deep slow landslide bodies. In particular, the latter is the case of either structurally complex clayey slopes or slopes location of pre-existing landslide bodies. With reference to the geo-hydro-mechanical context characterizing the south-eastern Italian Apennines, this contribution reports about the numerical investigation of both the pore water pressure and safety factor variations with time across the Pisciolo hill-slope, a representative slope, in relation to the real weather conditions from the 2001 to the 2016. The numerical investigation is aimed at designing an early warning system for the mitigation of the risk related to deep landsliding.