Energy performance assessment of passive buildings in future climatic scenarios: the case of study of the childcare centre in Putignano (Bari, Italy)

The building sector is a primary target for GreenHouse Gas emissions mitigation efforts, as it accounts for 36% of final energy use. The most effective mitigation strategies include the energy retrofit of the existing building stock. Among existing buildings, particular attention should be paid to school buildings, which are among the most diffuse public buildings in Europe, most of them built decades ago, with a resulting high potential in terms of refurbishment effectiveness. Moreover, schools cover a social function and require high levels of indoor environmental quality. In this field, the research activity is intense, but retrofit strategies are still conceived considering historical weather data, which could not represent correctly present and future climate patterns, reducing the retrofit effectiveness. In this work, an energy retrofit to "Passivhaus standard" of a childcare centre located in the Mediterranean area is analysed through dynamic simulations. A post-retrofit building model is simulated using Typical Meteorological Year (TMY) and compared with the ones simulated in future weather scenarios, created using the morphing method. The analyses aim to assess if the technical solutions currently adopted on the basis of the TMY will lead to acceptable energy performance in future decades. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis of different design solutions is performed, aiming to assess their effectiveness in future weather conditions.