Modelling the dynamics of fragmented vs. consolidated last-mile e-commerce deliveries via an agent-based model

This paper proposes a new agent-based model (ABM) to explore different scenarios of e-commerce urban deliveries, comparing door-to-door deliveries with consolidation-based strategies. The ABM reproduces operation under different demand patterns and include the possible matching of customer systematic trips and collection/delivery points with small detour from the scheduled trip. Several variables of the model can be changed in a parametric simulation environment, allowing to infer the level of convenience of consolidation strategies for the different actors involved. The model provides indicators able to take into account customer and logistics operator perspectives, and the impact of the service on the community. Results can give useful information to understand how to manage growing on-demand urban deliveries and to measure the impact of freight transport on city sustainability.