Threats in Water-Energy-Food-Land Nexus by the 2022 Military and Economic Conflict

The formation of societies is based on the dynamics of spatial clustering, which optimizes economies of scale in the management of the water-energy-food (WEF) nexus. Energy and food are determinant measures of prosperity. Using the WEF nexus as an indicator, we evaluate the social impacts of the current (2022) conflict and in particular the economic sanctions on Russia. As Russia and Ukraine are major global suppliers of energy sources, food, and fertilizers, new threats arise by their limitations and the rally of prices. By analyzing related data, we show the dramatic effects on society, and we note that cities, which depend on a wider area for energy and food supplies, are extremely vulnerable. This problem was substantially worsened due to the large-scale urbanization in recent decades, which increased the distance from food sources. We conjecture that the Western elites' decision to sanction Russia dramatically transformed the global WEF equilibrium, which could probably lead to the collapse of social cohesion.