Long Term Scenarios: optimal selection of a representative set of climatic years for the simulation of the National Electricity System

The energy transition is increasingly assuming a central role in European policies in recent years to reduce polluting emissions through efficiency, electrification and the transition from fossil fuels to renewable sources. To implement this change, it is necessary to plan a precise and effective strategy to have an increasingly green reality while guaranteeing the consumer a safe and adequate energy system even in the event of a temporary lack of renewable sources. For this reason, the European Transmission System Operators (TSO) and Distribution System Operators (DSO) of the electricity and gas network are working to ensure a safe, adequate and increasingly interconnected system in the perspective of an exponential growth of non-programmable renewable sources. Hence, more and more precise methodologies were studied to model and simulate the Electric System to accurately predict possible medium and long-term development scenarios. On the other hand, technological achievements have led to ever greater availability of climatic and energy data and their ever more accurate analysis [1], [2]. All of this could lead to improve the simulation of the National Electricity System as a function of a very important parameter: the climate.