Multiactor evaluation and perspective theory in a study on feasibility of urban development programs. The Society of Urban Transformation in Bari

The story of public policies and urban transformation plans is characterized by continuous deals, institutional counterbalance, re-formulation that relevantly reduce the effectiveness and the affordability of traditional financial and economic indicators of feasibility. The interference among the aims of different actors affects the designed path of transformation, changing strategies, accelerating or delaying pieces of the predicted urban development and consequently changing the flow of positive/negative economic effect, according to the evolving prevalence of one actor on the other. Considering a crossroad between those theories (such as the perspective theory of Kanneman and Twersky) that explain some aspects of the relationship between future target and actor perception, and those theories (such as the Institutional Analysis suggested by Munda and Funtowicz) that investigate the relationship between the evolution of contexts according to the change of importance of the stakeholders of a transformation this paper analyses the application of expected utility theory in a transformation managed by a number of actors, depending each other with imperfect sharing of objectives. This is the case of the hypothesis of urban development carried on by the S.T.U. (society for urban transformation) of the Metropolitan City of Bari. By the application of a original application of multi-group evaluation, the possibility of exploring the mutability of economic flows has been investigated and measured on different scenario, trying to join social complex dimension and financial values.