Probabilistic total transfer capability assessment

In a deregulated market, the concept of Available Transfer Capability (ATC) and Total Transfer Capability (TTC) permits to measure the network capability for further commercial activity over and above already committed uses. This paper presents a probabilistic method of assessing the congestion risk associated with TTC. The goal is to provide accurate and realistic ahead-of-time information on the ability of interconnected networks to reliably increase power transfer between two areas. In fact, the proposed procedure is based on operating conditions evaluated by the ‘load forecasting’ of the day before. Loads and generation distribution factors among generating units can be seen as random variables. A deterministic approach based, on nonlinear programming techniques is adopted for assessing mean value of TTC. While the evaluation of the Probability Density Function (PDF) of TTC permits to take into account the randomness of variables distributed normally.