A critical assessment of kassapoglou’s statistical model for composites fatigue

Kassapoglou has recently proposed a model for fatigue of composite materials which seems to suggest that the fatigue SN curve can be fully predicted on the basis of the statistical distribution of static strengths. The original abstract writes expressions for the cycles to failure as a function of R ratio are derived. These expressions do not require any curve fitting and do not involve any experimentally determined parameters. The fatigue predictions do not require any fatigue tests for calibration”. These surprisingly ambitious claims and attractive results deserve careful scrutiny. We contend that the result, which originates from the reliability theory where exponential distributions is sometimes used to model distribution of failures when age (or wearout) has no influence on the probability of failure, does not conform to a fatigue testing with the resulting SN curve distribution. Despite Kassapoglou's attempt to use a wearout law which seems to confirm this result even with wearout, we contend that a proper statistical treatment of the fatigue process should not make wear-out constants disappear, and hence the SN curves would depend on them, and not just on scatter of static data. These concerns explain the large discrepancies found by 3 independent studies which have tried to apply Kassapoglou's model to composite fatigue data.