Sketch models for air transport demand estimation: A case study for regional airports system in Italy

In this paper the problem of air travel demand estimation in regional airports is faced. In particular, the proposed study analyses the airports system of Apulia Region (Southern Italy) considering the demand flows from Apulia toward important Italian Regions as Lombardy, Latium and Veneto. The aim is to define simplified models that should give acceptable estimates of travel demand even if a small amount of data from immediate information sources are used. To this purpose, regressive non-linear and mono-modal statistical models are considered and different model specifications have been investigated and analyzed assuming various functional forms as well as different sets of potential explicative variables. The statistical analyses have been carried on by using very cheap data, normally available on the Internet web sites of the air companies and/or agencies. Through a trial-and-error procedure, for each model, the statistical significance of considered variables and the statistical performances of the single model have been determined. The calibration phase, has shown the effectiveness of some variables that are indirectly representative of the average income in the chosen area. The proposed models include also variables describing both land-use characteristics and transport supply system relevant to the considered regions as well as the level of service of the air transport (average fare per passenger, competitor transport modes performances). Considering the small amount of data and the very cheap information sources, the obtained result are very interesting and the most performing model could be used for preliminary studied as well as starting point for more detailed, accurate and expensive estimation tools.