Framework to assess climate change impact on heating and cooling energy demands in building stock: A case study of Belgium in 2050 and 2100

Climate change has a broad impact on different aspects of energy use in buildings. This study explores potential changes in future heating and cooling energy demands. Increasing comfort expectations resulting from events like the extraordinary summer heatwaves in Europe are accelerating this trend to develop future scenarios for a better understanding of the relationship between future climate changes and the cooling need. This study used future weather data to estimate the heating and cooling energy demands in the Belgian building stock by 2050 and 2100 under base and business-as-usual scenarios using a dynamic building simulation model. The study showed that heating energy demand in the base scenario is expected to decrease by 8% to 13% in the 2050s and 13% to 22% in the 2090s compared to the 2010s. Additionally, the cooling energy demand is expected to increase by 39% to 65% in the 2050s and by 61% to 123% in the 2090s compared to the 2010s. Retrofit strategies applied to different building types contribute to lower the increase in cooling energy demand in the business-as-usual scenario compared to the base scenario. The cooling energy demand for an average building in the business-as-usual scenario is expected to increase with a range of 25% to 71% in the 2050s compared to 45% to 92% in the base scenario and 77% to 154% in the 2090s compared to 72% to 198% in the base scenario compared to the 2010s. The findings of the study provide insights to mitigate the impacts of climate change on heating and cooling energy demands.