A nonlinear model to assess the financial feasibility of the redevelopment of industrial sites in disuse [Un modello di analisi non lineare per la valutazione della fattibilità finanziaria degli interventi di valorizzazione dei siti industriali dismessi]

With reference to the growing need of recovery and functional reconversion of abandoned industrial sites located in urban areas, the present research intends to highlight the significance of using valid evaluation models for supporting the public subjects and private investors’ choices processes. In particular, in the paper a model to assess the financial conveniences of the parties involved in the redevelopment of disused industrial sites, has been developed. The model borrows the logical approach of the Break-Even Analysis (BEA), by introducing hypothesis more relevant to the real market mechanisms and assuming the nonlinear trend of the financial parameters. The inclusion of the scale economies mechanisms in the definition of the algorithm constitutes the innovation of the operative logic of the model, able to appropriately reproduce the empirical market phenomena, compared to the classic application of the BEA with constant parameters. The proposed model represents an effective tool to be used in the early stages of interventions planning, for orienting the urban policy decisions towards more performing projects profitable interventions, in line with the current goals of sustainable development of the territories.