Understanding the dimensions, factors, and mechanisms of potential rebound effects in circular manufacturing: development of a detection-driven tool

The transition to a circular economy (CE) is increasingly promoted as a pathway to reduce resource use, environmental impacts, and dependence on virgin materials. However, circular strategies, widely applied in manufacturing, may unintentionally trigger rebound effects (REs). REs occur when sustainability-oriented actions, such as those related to circular strategies, generate systemic responses that partially or fully offset their intended environmental benefits. Through mechanisms such as increased production, consumption, or resource use, well-intentioned interventions may therefore undermine sustainability goals. Despite growing academic interest, REs in circular manufacturing remain conceptually fragmented, underexplored at the industrial level, and largely unsupported by practical tools. This thesis addresses these gaps by developing a tool to support companies in detecting potential REs that may arise during the implementation of circular strategies in manufacturing. The research adopts the Design Research Methodology and follows four stages. First, a systematic literature review identifies five key CE–RE dimensions (i.e., Business model, Drivers, Circular manufacturing ecosystem, Product lifecycle management, and Socio-economic aspects) and analyses how different types of REs may emerge across them. The results are synthesised in conceptual maps that structure the relationships between circular initiatives and rebound dynamics. The rebound mechanisms—defined as qualitative causal connections between interdependent elements that lead to specific effects—are used to explain how circular strategies may inadvertently trigger REs across business processes. Second, based on the conceptual maps, a CE–RE reference model is developed to capture the causal pathways through which circular initiatives propagate across different levels of analysis. Third, these insights inform the construction of an impact model that describes how circular solutions may lead to REs and identifies where a support tool can intervene. Building on this model, a detection-driven tool is developed to operationalise rebound mechanisms through a structured qualitative questionnaire, mechanism-based logic, and links to performance indicators aligned with CE strategies and sustainability goals. Finally, expert interviews are used to provide an initial validation of the tool, offering feedback on its clarity, usability, and practical relevance. The findings show that REs arise not only from efficiency improvements but also from behavioural responses, market dynamics, technological optimisation, and organisational decisions. The thesis contributes to theory by systematising and expanding knowledge across CE–RE dimensions, clarifying causal mechanisms, and integrating producer- and consumer-related rebound pathways into a unified analytical framework. It contributes to practice by raising awareness of the potential occurrence of unintended effects during the implementation of CE strategies and by offering a structured approach to anticipating such consequences, supporting decision-making, and guiding the selection of performance indicators for early RE monitoring. Policy-relevant insights further highlight the need for regulatory instruments that explicitly address rebound risks within CE initiatives. A key limitation of this research is that the detection-driven tool has not been rigorously tested through full industrial applications beyond expert consultations. Future research should therefore focus on empirical validation through case studies, pilot tests, and field experiments to assess usability, refine mechanism definitions, and evaluate the tool’s ability to support decision-making in real operational contexts. Overall, this thesis advances the understanding of REs in circular manufacturing and provides a foundational, methodologically robust, and practitioner-oriented framework for detecting and managing potential unintended consequences in the transition towards a CE.