Load supplying capability of interconnected power systems: A probabilistic approach

Prudent planning of a power system always requires determination of its load supplying capability (LSC). However, the assessment of the ability of a power system to supply loads can become very difficult when the problem data are uncertain. In this case the use of current deterministic approaches is not adequate and the application of probabilistic techniques is the most feasible alternative. This paper presents a probabilistic approach for the evaluation of the LSC of interconnected power systems in order to capture the unavoidable random nature of loads due to bus load forecasting. The method treats loads as random correlated variables with normal distribution and it can determine the probability distribution of the system LSC and of all the quantities which characterize the state of the network in this particular condition. A numerical example is included to illustrate the usefulness of the proposed technique.