Risk perception and knowledge in flood risk management: analytical modelling of citizens’ attitudes to protective behavior in flood risk situation

The effects of flooding on the urban environment are considered among the leading causes of social crisis, as they could drastically affect the socioeconomic status of a community. An increase in events can significantly inhibit the political system of land and emergency management, social security, human welfare, and the economy. In recent decades, several studies have illustrated how the probability of a flood event occurring can be modified by human-dependent factors such as climate change and land use, among others. For this reason, over the past decade, flood risk management policies have evolved to redirect the actions of policymakers from purely physical defensive measures toward integrated management and planning strategies. They place greater emphasis on the complexity of the interaction between social and physical processes. The complexity of physical processes lies in the wide variety of underlying phenomena that produce different types of flooding. The complexity of social processes lies in their characterization by human-related factors such as risk perception, emotions, bonds, context, actions, and related behaviors.Structuring the complexity of these two systems could support flood risk management because it would help to define the elements that describe the phenomenon and more precise measures through which to mitigate it.This integrated approach to risk management is the result of a common scientific understanding of structural problems over traditional management strategies, which have neglected the multi-agent and systemic nature of risk, characterized by high complexity and uncertainty, defined in terms of individual objectives with problemsolving approaches and top-down management strategies.Building on these premises, this study seeks to contribute to existing research based on bottom-up approaches aimed at supporting planning decision-making for flood management.Specifically, It provides a preliminary evaluation and framework of citizens' perceptions and knowledge of flood risk, in order to assess the attitude of protective behavior and useful elements to support planning decision-making for flood management. Finally, it has been tried to identify a potential implication of the methodology on the field of urban planning.The proposed methodology is the result of a research experiment developed through different approaches applied to two case studies: Brindisi and Bari.It is given by the combination of an electronic survey to collect data on citizens' perceptions of flood risk, a structural equation model (SEM) to structure them, and a hybrid choice model (HCM) to link citizens' perceptions of flood risk and knowledge of measures to actions and thus define citizens' behavior under different risk scenarios. The results of the present study show that risk perceptions are closely related to knowledge regarding the causes of the phenomenon. They significantly influence citizens' attitude to protective behavior under risk conditions, although to different degrees. In turn, risk perception depends more on previous experience while knowledge depends on factors such as residence, level of education and level of risk communication. The methodological approach allowed useful elements to emerge to support planning decision making for flood management.