Crowdfunding performance, market performance, and the moderating roles of product innovativeness and experts' judgment: Evidence from the movie industry

Reward-based crowdfunding (CF) has emerged as a method to solicit funds for innovative projects. Yet, little is still known about the ability of reward-based CF to act as a signal in the eyes of future consumers, and thus boost the future market performance of new products that innovators intend to commercialize using the campaign funds. In addition, scant research has clarified the boundary conditions that can magnify or weaken the efficacy of this CF signal. Given the relevance of reward-based CF for supporting innovation, understanding when the CF campaign performance works as an effective signal is of great interest, especially in business settings characterized by high product quality uncertainty. By using the movie industry as a setting, we contribute to fill this gap. Specifically, we argue that the positive effect of the reward-based CF performance is moderated by two important factors influencing consumers' purchase decisions: the degree of product innovativeness and the expert judgment about the product. Elaborating on the effects of product innovativeness, we posit that this product feature should moderate the positive relationship between CF and subsequent market performances in an inverted U-shaped fashion. Favorable expert recommendations, on the other hand, should weaken the efficacy of the CF performance as a signal. Results from a sample of 1059 new movies (of which 152 released in theaters) confirm these predictions and offer several remarkable implications for innovators.